One of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors has been closed for weeks with no resolution in sight, as Iran’s military campaign continues to strike shipping, ports, and energy storage facilities across the Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil and gas, has been functionally impassable since February 28. The closure is having a mounting economic impact, with Brent crude trading near $100 a barrel Thursday.
Iranian forces struck merchant vessels near the strait, including the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree, leaving three crew members believed trapped. Iraq suspended oil exports from all ports following attacks on nearby tankers. Bahrain issued shelter-in-place orders for the Muharraq Governorate after fuel storage tanks were targeted. Oman cleared its Mina Al Fahal terminal — one of the last remaining functional export points in the region — following drone attacks.
Brent crude rose about 6% Thursday to nearly $98, having briefly touched $100.29. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from around $60 a barrel at the year’s start, reaching a weekly peak of $119. Iran’s military warned of $200-per-barrel oil, warning that regional security — which it blamed on the US — determines the price.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from reserves held by its 32 members. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite the scale of intervention, the market focused on ongoing supply disruption and the absence of any diplomatic progress toward a ceasefire.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Asian stocks fell and European gas prices climbed 7.7%.
